Investment Lessons Learned From a Bully
Charlie was the consumate bully. One of the older kids in the neighborhood, and also the paperboy, he had a bad reputation and it was well earned. The event that occurred on one snowy day in our small quiet town in central NJ some 30 years ago can today be used as a metaphor for an important investment lesson.
We'd spent much of the day building a huge snow fort--my brother and I, Jimmy and Jon, brothers who lived across from us, and a few other assorted neighborhood kids. We could all fit inside this circular structure, but the walls were so high that we could not see out, save for a "window" or two built into the wall. Definitely the best snow fort we'd ever built.
But we soon realized that our snow structure's hours of existence were limited. Not because of the sun, but because of something much more menacing: Charlie. We realized that he was due to make his afternoon newspaper deliveries, and as soon as he saw our fort, he would very likely destroy it. At 15 or 16, Charlie was a big kid, and could severely damage our fort with one flying leap.
We thought quickly. If Charlie was going to take down our fort, he was going to do so at his own peril. We quickly loaded that snow fort with everything we could find--rakes, shovels, other garden implements standing upright, even a full size garden tractor. He might take down the fort that we spent all day building, but that bully was not going to walk away unscathed.
We hid in the bushes, and along came Charlie. He saw our snow fort, but could not see what was contained within. He stopped, he sprinted, he jumped, and landed, destroying our fort. How proud he must have been as he hit that wall of snow--until a split second later when he landed on a tractor, several garden implements, and half the contents of Jimmy and Jon's garage. Charlie got a big, painful surprise that snowy afternoon. What appeared to be a harmless, ultra white snow fort, was actually much more. It's contents could not be seen from the outside; hidden within it's walls were dangerous, unseen risks.
That day, Charlie the bully cried like a baby. I don't remember seeing him all that much after that. He didn't suffer any permanent damage, and in hindsight, I'm glad he was not injured. We all (I hope) learned important lessons that day.
Hopefully the investment lesson is clear. During those times of financial crisis, when companies are beaten down, we as investors have the propensity to be fooled by the "It's down 50%, it can't go any lower" sentiment. That's the time to be aware of what might really be contained within a given company's situation. Is their peril lurking behind snowy white walls? Is it really worth the risk?
Charlie, if you are out there, I'd bet you wouldn't go near the Radians (RDN), MBIA's (MBI), or other such companies that have been trounced, yet may still conceal the unexpected. There may ultimately be reward, but how much risk are you willing to take?
*The author does not have positions in any of the companies mentioned. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Marty Whitman on MBIA and Radian
Marty Whitman is a legend in value investing circles, and yet he still continues to surprise. In his most recent letter to shareholders, a must read for value investors, he laid out his case for both MBIA and Radian:
In the past, Whitman has been a master in both distressed equity, and even distressed debt, with a keen ability to determine true value, post crisis. While Marty is one of our heroes, we for one don't have the stomach to go near either of these companies, or most other names in related sectors.
The game has changed since Marty wrote this letter, especially in the case of MBIA, but we are steering clear. Too much risk, we believe, and possibly another shoe or two yet to drop.
While we hope Marty Whitman is right in the end, we are staying on the sidelines.
*The author does not have positions in any of the companies mentioned, but does have a position in Third Avenue's Small Cap Value Fund. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
Marty Whitman is a legend in value investing circles, and yet he still continues to surprise. In his most recent letter to shareholders, a must read for value investors, he laid out his case for both MBIA and Radian:
THE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE MELTDOWN AND HOUSING COLLAPSE
TAVF is investing heavily in the common stocks of companies suffering through the current housing crisis. These companies include financial institutions, a homebuilder, a building supplier, land banks and investment builders. The Fund’s reasons for this investment program provide a good case study as to how Third Avenue’s “safe and cheap*” approach works in practice:First, the bad side of these investments:
1) The stock market pricing for these equity issues is chaotic. There is no way Fund management is able to pick a bottom for securities prices, or a near bottom.
2) Fund management has no good idea of how deep the crisis will become, or how long it will last. Our best guess is two to four years.
Second, the good side of these investments:
1) In each instance, TAVF is acquiring common stocks at meaningful discounts from readily ascertainable NAVs. In the case of certain financial institution
common stocks – MGIC Common, MBIA Common and Radian Common, the prices the Fund
is paying are no more that 40% of book value, or adjusted book value. For each of these companies, a normalized Return on Equity (equity equals book
value) (“ROE”) ranges from 8% to 14%. Assuming a 10% ROE sometime in the future, and no further dramatic deterioration in book value during the interim, probably a realistic assumption; and current pricing at 40% of book value, Third Avenue would
be paying only four times future normalized earning power. There seems to be a reasonable probability, too, that TAVF is really paying less than four times
normalized earnings, even assuming that future normalized earnings are fully taxed and even assuming some modest dilution of the common stocks.
2) Each common stock acquired, is acquired in a company which enjoys a strong financial position. While there can be no guarantees, the probabilitiesare that each of these companies will survive as solvent going concerns either without requiring
major access to capital markets for new funding, or by obtaining new funding from others on terms that are only modestly dilutive for TAVF. On December
10th, MBIA announced that it is obtaining $500 million of equity financing from Warburg Pincus; and another $500 million from a rights offering which Warburg Pincus will backstop, i.e.,underwrite. Assuming that Third Avenue participates
in the rights offering and also takes advantage of any oversubscription privileges, the capital infusion should be, at worst, only modestly dilutive for TAVF.
3) Each company seems very well managed.
4) It is possible that the crisis will become increasingly deep, and prolonged; or rating agencies will start to place great weight on soft, qualitative considerations. In those events, the companies might need capital infusions to
remain going concerns. TAVF has proposed to MBIA,Radian and USG managements that such infusions be in the form of equity, and that existing stockholders
provide the equity via pre-emptive rights offerings. MBIA proposes to raise $500 million via a rights offering. If this were to occur, and if other portfolio
companies were to follow the MBIA path, the capital infusions would be, for Third Avenue, mostly nondilutive, or anti–dilutive (if there are oversubscription
privileges). In the case of MBIA and Radian, it is crucial if they are to remain going concerns, that the national rating agencies continue to assign AAA and AA ratings, respectively, to each company’s bond insurance subsidiaries. As an aside, given current prices, TAVF would probably not lose money if Radian or MBIA
were to go into run-off rather than remain going concerns. Run-off, i.e., liquidation, simply is not a likely outcome, however.
In the past, Whitman has been a master in both distressed equity, and even distressed debt, with a keen ability to determine true value, post crisis. While Marty is one of our heroes, we for one don't have the stomach to go near either of these companies, or most other names in related sectors.
The game has changed since Marty wrote this letter, especially in the case of MBIA, but we are steering clear. Too much risk, we believe, and possibly another shoe or two yet to drop.
While we hope Marty Whitman is right in the end, we are staying on the sidelines.
*The author does not have positions in any of the companies mentioned, but does have a position in Third Avenue's Small Cap Value Fund. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Increasing Avalon Holdings (AWX) Position
We recently saw a further pullback in microcap Avalon Holdings(AWX)(from the $6.50 range to $4.50) as an opportunity, and added to our position. At $4.70, the company has $1.77 per share in cash, and we believe the downside is limited.
Be aware that AWX is incredibly small, has low volume, and fairly wide spreads. Please see our earlier research for more information.
10/13/06
11/23/07
*The author has a position in Avalon Holdings (AWX). This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
We recently saw a further pullback in microcap Avalon Holdings(AWX)(from the $6.50 range to $4.50) as an opportunity, and added to our position. At $4.70, the company has $1.77 per share in cash, and we believe the downside is limited.
Be aware that AWX is incredibly small, has low volume, and fairly wide spreads. Please see our earlier research for more information.
10/13/06
11/23/07
*The author has a position in Avalon Holdings (AWX). This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Random Thoughts from 36000 Feet
Your Cheap Stocks Editor is writing this from 7 miles above the earth en route to Denver. The air is thin up here, so my apologies in advance if none of this makes any sense. We typically don’t write about the markets, or macroeconomic themes, but hey, the air is thin up here, and I have no access to spreadsheets, 10Q's, 10K's, or other financial data.
On Equity Market Volatility
No one should be shocked if the volatility we saw in 2007, and the fourth quarter in particular, follows us deep into 2008. During 2007, there were nearly 60 trading days-21 in the fourth quarter- that the Dow finished plus or minus 1 percent. In case youre wondering, that’s slightly less than 25% of the time. More remarkable, however, the plus and minus 1% days were nearly evenly split. What a roller coaster ride for investors, especially given the endless, up to date news constantly bombarding us; “helping” us to make wise investment decisions. Makes it difficult to think and act like long term investors when the sky is falling one day, and there’s euphoria the next.
The ride has been rocky so far in this new year, and there are a whole host of issues-credit crisis, oil, the Fed, inflation, war, the upcoming elections, recession fears- to name a handful- which will continue to cause uncertainty. What’s the lesson here? Stay informed, but don’t get caught up too much in the daily market movements, economic data releases, or calls for economic armageddon or prosperity. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
On The Fed
Expectations are high that the Fed will continue to ratchet down interest rates to stem the credit crisis. Some pundits are calling for a sub 3% Fed Funds rate, and the futures markets are starting to reflect this. The markets love rate cuts, and stocks typically rally in in the aftermath. But watch out if market expectations are not met, ie. if the Fed does not cut as much as expected. While we believe rates will be cut again starting on January 30th, we also believe that the Fed will ultimately stop around 3.5%. The threat of inflation is real, and consumers are already seeing this reflected in many goods they purchase on a weekly basis. Chairman Bernanke is an inflation hawk, as are many of the 2008 Fed members who have a vote, and we believe inflation fears will ultimately stop further cuts. Perhaps the damage has already been done.
On Oil
Most pundits believe that $100 (and higher) oil is here to stay, and often cite supply concerns, Asia’s growing demand, and The Peak Oil Theory, among other reasons. We believe oil will pull back significantly in 2008. The days of $10, $20, or even $40 oil may be over, but we believe we’ll see the $50’s again. The fundamentals just aren’t that bad, and the run-up to $100 has been fueled more by a weak dollar, fear premium, and speculation than increasing demand.
Don’t mistake this for the naïve belief that all is well in the land of fossil fuels, and that we are not running out of oil. We will run out, we do need to find alternative sources, and we do need to continue improving technology in order to recover oil from difficult places. $100, we believe, is not justified. Ultimately, the oil markets will again trade on fundamentals.
The air is thin up here........
Your Cheap Stocks Editor is writing this from 7 miles above the earth en route to Denver. The air is thin up here, so my apologies in advance if none of this makes any sense. We typically don’t write about the markets, or macroeconomic themes, but hey, the air is thin up here, and I have no access to spreadsheets, 10Q's, 10K's, or other financial data.
On Equity Market Volatility
No one should be shocked if the volatility we saw in 2007, and the fourth quarter in particular, follows us deep into 2008. During 2007, there were nearly 60 trading days-21 in the fourth quarter- that the Dow finished plus or minus 1 percent. In case youre wondering, that’s slightly less than 25% of the time. More remarkable, however, the plus and minus 1% days were nearly evenly split. What a roller coaster ride for investors, especially given the endless, up to date news constantly bombarding us; “helping” us to make wise investment decisions. Makes it difficult to think and act like long term investors when the sky is falling one day, and there’s euphoria the next.
The ride has been rocky so far in this new year, and there are a whole host of issues-credit crisis, oil, the Fed, inflation, war, the upcoming elections, recession fears- to name a handful- which will continue to cause uncertainty. What’s the lesson here? Stay informed, but don’t get caught up too much in the daily market movements, economic data releases, or calls for economic armageddon or prosperity. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
On The Fed
Expectations are high that the Fed will continue to ratchet down interest rates to stem the credit crisis. Some pundits are calling for a sub 3% Fed Funds rate, and the futures markets are starting to reflect this. The markets love rate cuts, and stocks typically rally in in the aftermath. But watch out if market expectations are not met, ie. if the Fed does not cut as much as expected. While we believe rates will be cut again starting on January 30th, we also believe that the Fed will ultimately stop around 3.5%. The threat of inflation is real, and consumers are already seeing this reflected in many goods they purchase on a weekly basis. Chairman Bernanke is an inflation hawk, as are many of the 2008 Fed members who have a vote, and we believe inflation fears will ultimately stop further cuts. Perhaps the damage has already been done.
On Oil
Most pundits believe that $100 (and higher) oil is here to stay, and often cite supply concerns, Asia’s growing demand, and The Peak Oil Theory, among other reasons. We believe oil will pull back significantly in 2008. The days of $10, $20, or even $40 oil may be over, but we believe we’ll see the $50’s again. The fundamentals just aren’t that bad, and the run-up to $100 has been fueled more by a weak dollar, fear premium, and speculation than increasing demand.
Don’t mistake this for the naïve belief that all is well in the land of fossil fuels, and that we are not running out of oil. We will run out, we do need to find alternative sources, and we do need to continue improving technology in order to recover oil from difficult places. $100, we believe, is not justified. Ultimately, the oil markets will again trade on fundamentals.
The air is thin up here........
Friday, January 04, 2008
Taking Advantage, or Being Taken Advantage of? The Case for CBRL
Mr. Market has been on a rampage so far in 2008, and it's no wonder given the daily (over)dose of news we are all the "beneficiaries" of. My personal favorite was the headline in The Wall Street Journal earlier this week, proclaiming that oil finally hit $100. If you read a little further, you learned that $100 was reached via a tiny, ceremonial trade, evidently placed for bragging rights, ie. "I made the first $100 trade in oil!" Misleading you say?. I know, "we must sell papers, we must draw viewers". I digress.
Your Cheap Stocks editor for one, is starting to see some interesting opportunities. Today, we took a position (after several years of watching, waiting and sporadic research) in CBRL Group, parent of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Restaurants. In Peter Lynch-like fashion, we've eaten there many times over the years, never had a bad meal, and always had to wait for a table. We like the fact that CBRL owns 404 of its 565 locations--thats a rarity these days in the restaurant business.
Its no wonder restaurant stocks are getting beat up these days. Ingredient costs are rising, labor costs too (minimum wage), and speculation is that consumers will stop spending, and in turn, shun dining out. We are still not convinced consumers will pull back to a great degree, and in the event they do curtail spending, we believe Cracker Barrel will continue to attract crowds due to its attractively priced menu. The same can't be said for some of the others playing in the same space that have higher price points.
Cracker Barrel's same store sales came in down 1% earlier this week; this combined with a falling market, and overall economic worries have punished the shares to levels not seen since 2002.
We took a position not in the hope of picking the bottom, because we're not adept at doing so, but because we believe the shares are attractively priced.
CBRL Group
Tioker: CBRL
Price: $26.94
Mkt Cap: $640 million
Enterprise Value: $1.4 billion
EV/Owned Location: $3.5 million
FWD P/E (2008): 9.2
Dvd Yield: 2.3%
Previous CBRL Research: February, 2006
*The author has a position in CBRL. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
Mr. Market has been on a rampage so far in 2008, and it's no wonder given the daily (over)dose of news we are all the "beneficiaries" of. My personal favorite was the headline in The Wall Street Journal earlier this week, proclaiming that oil finally hit $100. If you read a little further, you learned that $100 was reached via a tiny, ceremonial trade, evidently placed for bragging rights, ie. "I made the first $100 trade in oil!" Misleading you say?. I know, "we must sell papers, we must draw viewers". I digress.
Your Cheap Stocks editor for one, is starting to see some interesting opportunities. Today, we took a position (after several years of watching, waiting and sporadic research) in CBRL Group, parent of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Restaurants. In Peter Lynch-like fashion, we've eaten there many times over the years, never had a bad meal, and always had to wait for a table. We like the fact that CBRL owns 404 of its 565 locations--thats a rarity these days in the restaurant business.
Its no wonder restaurant stocks are getting beat up these days. Ingredient costs are rising, labor costs too (minimum wage), and speculation is that consumers will stop spending, and in turn, shun dining out. We are still not convinced consumers will pull back to a great degree, and in the event they do curtail spending, we believe Cracker Barrel will continue to attract crowds due to its attractively priced menu. The same can't be said for some of the others playing in the same space that have higher price points.
Cracker Barrel's same store sales came in down 1% earlier this week; this combined with a falling market, and overall economic worries have punished the shares to levels not seen since 2002.
We took a position not in the hope of picking the bottom, because we're not adept at doing so, but because we believe the shares are attractively priced.
CBRL Group
Tioker: CBRL
Price: $26.94
Mkt Cap: $640 million
Enterprise Value: $1.4 billion
EV/Owned Location: $3.5 million
FWD P/E (2008): 9.2
Dvd Yield: 2.3%
Previous CBRL Research: February, 2006
*The author has a position in CBRL. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Land Review 2007: Part II
There was quite a bit of interest in Part I of 2007's Land Review, so today, we give you Part II. For clarification, we are not suggesting that any or all of these companies are ripe for purchase. Value is in the eye of the beholder, and the companies I value are likely to be shorted by someone who has an opposing view. (See our8/7/07 column where Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn and I tangled over our repective opinions on St. Joes (JOE).
(Market Cap and EV are in $ millions)
Scheid Vineyards
Ticker: SVIN
Recent Price: $35.55
52 High/Low: $39/$32
Avg Volume: 50
Mkt Cap: 36
Ent Value: 70
Acres Owned: 1800
EV/Acre: $38,889
Location: California
Primary Use: Vineyards
Shares/Acre: 1094
Tejon Ranch
Ticker: TRC
Recent Price: $41.43
52 High/Low: $57.09/$35.8
Avg Volume: 50000
Mkt Cap: 700
Ent Value: 620
Acres Owned: 270000
EV/Acre: $2296
Location: California
Primary Use: Development/Ag
Shares/Acre: 55
St Joes
Ticker: JOE
Recent Price: $31.01
52 High/Low: $64.1/$26.7
Avg Volume: 863000
Mkt Cap: 2306
Ent Value: 2841
Acres Owned: 718240
EV/Acre: $3956
Location: Florida
Primary Use: Development/timber
Shares/Acre: 128
Texas Pacific Land
Ticker: TPL
Recent Price: $43.45
52 High/Low: $62.75/$32.01
Avg Volume: 17000
Mkt Cap: 457
Ent Value: 448
Acres Owned: 966392
EV/Acre: $464
Location: Texas
Primary Use: Leased for grazing/oil
Shares/Acre: 11
Cadiz
Ticker: CDZI
Recent Price: $19.13
52 High/Low: $27/$16.06
Avg Volume: 37000
Mkt Cap: 228
Ent Value: 245
Acres Owned: 45000
EV/Acre: $5444
Location: California
Primary Use: Water/ag
Shares/Acre: 285
Avatar
Ticker: AVTR
Recent Price: $38.06
52 High/Low: $86.52/$37.71
Avg Volume: 116000
Mkt Cap: 315
Ent Value: 259
Acres Owned: 32000
EV/Acre: $8094
Location: Florida, Arizona
Primary Use: Development
Shares/Acre: 213
Pope Resources
Ticker: POPEZ
Recent Price: $41.78
52 High/Low: $50.01/$34
Avg Volume: 6000
Mkt Cap: 196
Ent Value: 242
Acres Owned: 118000
EV/Acre: $2051
Location: Washington
Primary Use: Timber/Development
Shares/Acre: 49
Potlach Corp
Ticker: PCH
Recent Price: $45.76
51 High/Low: $49.98/$38.99
Avg Volume: 364000
Mkt Cap: 1793
Ent Value: 2191
Acres Owned: 1500000
EV/Acre: $1461
Location: Arizona, Idaho, Minnesota
Primary Use: Timber
Shares/Acre: 32
Mauna Loa
Ticker: NUT
Recent Price: $3.55
52 High/Low: $6.27/$3.5
Avg Volume: 17400
Mkt Cap: 27
Ent Value: 30
Acres Owned: 2242
EV/Acre: $13381
Location: Hawaii
Primary Use: Agriculture
Shares/Acre: 3769
Keenawaw Land
Ticker: KEWL
Recent Price: $217
52 High/Low: $222.25/$171
Avg Volume: 500
Mkt Cap: 139.1
Ent Value: 139.1 (est)
Acres Owned: 150000 (est)
EV/Acre: $927 (est)
Location: Michigan
Primary Use: Timber
Shares/Acre: 4
This is not intended to be an exhaustive list of all companies that hold substantial amounts of land. There are many, and perhaps we'll profile others in future postings. Happy New Year!
*The author holds positions in JOE and TRC. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
There was quite a bit of interest in Part I of 2007's Land Review, so today, we give you Part II. For clarification, we are not suggesting that any or all of these companies are ripe for purchase. Value is in the eye of the beholder, and the companies I value are likely to be shorted by someone who has an opposing view. (See our8/7/07 column where Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn and I tangled over our repective opinions on St. Joes (JOE).
(Market Cap and EV are in $ millions)
Scheid Vineyards
Ticker: SVIN
Recent Price: $35.55
52 High/Low: $39/$32
Avg Volume: 50
Mkt Cap: 36
Ent Value: 70
Acres Owned: 1800
EV/Acre: $38,889
Location: California
Primary Use: Vineyards
Shares/Acre: 1094
Tejon Ranch
Ticker: TRC
Recent Price: $41.43
52 High/Low: $57.09/$35.8
Avg Volume: 50000
Mkt Cap: 700
Ent Value: 620
Acres Owned: 270000
EV/Acre: $2296
Location: California
Primary Use: Development/Ag
Shares/Acre: 55
St Joes
Ticker: JOE
Recent Price: $31.01
52 High/Low: $64.1/$26.7
Avg Volume: 863000
Mkt Cap: 2306
Ent Value: 2841
Acres Owned: 718240
EV/Acre: $3956
Location: Florida
Primary Use: Development/timber
Shares/Acre: 128
Texas Pacific Land
Ticker: TPL
Recent Price: $43.45
52 High/Low: $62.75/$32.01
Avg Volume: 17000
Mkt Cap: 457
Ent Value: 448
Acres Owned: 966392
EV/Acre: $464
Location: Texas
Primary Use: Leased for grazing/oil
Shares/Acre: 11
Cadiz
Ticker: CDZI
Recent Price: $19.13
52 High/Low: $27/$16.06
Avg Volume: 37000
Mkt Cap: 228
Ent Value: 245
Acres Owned: 45000
EV/Acre: $5444
Location: California
Primary Use: Water/ag
Shares/Acre: 285
Avatar
Ticker: AVTR
Recent Price: $38.06
52 High/Low: $86.52/$37.71
Avg Volume: 116000
Mkt Cap: 315
Ent Value: 259
Acres Owned: 32000
EV/Acre: $8094
Location: Florida, Arizona
Primary Use: Development
Shares/Acre: 213
Pope Resources
Ticker: POPEZ
Recent Price: $41.78
52 High/Low: $50.01/$34
Avg Volume: 6000
Mkt Cap: 196
Ent Value: 242
Acres Owned: 118000
EV/Acre: $2051
Location: Washington
Primary Use: Timber/Development
Shares/Acre: 49
Potlach Corp
Ticker: PCH
Recent Price: $45.76
51 High/Low: $49.98/$38.99
Avg Volume: 364000
Mkt Cap: 1793
Ent Value: 2191
Acres Owned: 1500000
EV/Acre: $1461
Location: Arizona, Idaho, Minnesota
Primary Use: Timber
Shares/Acre: 32
Mauna Loa
Ticker: NUT
Recent Price: $3.55
52 High/Low: $6.27/$3.5
Avg Volume: 17400
Mkt Cap: 27
Ent Value: 30
Acres Owned: 2242
EV/Acre: $13381
Location: Hawaii
Primary Use: Agriculture
Shares/Acre: 3769
Keenawaw Land
Ticker: KEWL
Recent Price: $217
52 High/Low: $222.25/$171
Avg Volume: 500
Mkt Cap: 139.1
Ent Value: 139.1 (est)
Acres Owned: 150000 (est)
EV/Acre: $927 (est)
Location: Michigan
Primary Use: Timber
Shares/Acre: 4
This is not intended to be an exhaustive list of all companies that hold substantial amounts of land. There are many, and perhaps we'll profile others in future postings. Happy New Year!
*The author holds positions in JOE and TRC. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Land Review 2007: Part I
What better way to say goodbye to 2007, we thought, than to review some of the companies holding one of our favorite assets, land. It’s generally been a pretty rough year for most firms that have anything to do with real estate. Some have no doubt been punished well beyond justification, but then again, Mr. Market is in control, and does as he sees fit. We believe this has created some compelling opportunities even if the housing situation worsens.
For the purposes of this piece, we’ve identified 20 or so companies with various operating businesses, that have substantial land holdings. Some of these have land that is a peripheral part of operations, or just one of several operating businesses. These companies have typically been less affected by recent market events; especially if their other operations are firing on all cylinders. Others have suffered from a double whammy: huge declines due to the geographical location of their land, and the fact that land is their primary business.
Two data calculations we use are worthy of explanation:
EV/Acres: Enterprise Value of the company/Total owned acres
Enterprise value is the market value of the firm plus debt, minus cash, and is an approximation of all claims that equity and debt holders have on a firm. We believe EV is a better estimate of true current market value, because it represents all claims investors hold in the capital structure, not just equity.
We use this calculation not to attempt to value the land on a per acre basis, but rather for perspective. The results of this calculation will be all over the board depending on the amount of land a company holds, how prominent it is in a company’s operations, as well as the land’s quality. (Obviously, timber land and marsh land is less valuable than vacation property)
Shares Per Acre
This represents the number of shares you would need to own in order to own one acre of a particular company’s land. This measure has no particular use, other than it is interesting to your Cheap Stocks editor, and helps measure an equity stake where the underlying company owns land in different terms. (For example, instead of saying you just picked up 550 shares of Tejon Ranch, you could say you just bought 10 acres of California land).
Below is Part I, the first ten companies.
(Market Cap and EV are in $ millions)
Alexander and Baldwin
Ticker: ALEX
Recent Price: $52.95
52 High/Low: 59.42/43.62
Avg Volume: 200000
Mkt Cap: 2227(million)
Ent Value: 2674(million)
Acres Owned: 89440
EV/Acre: $29,897
Location: Hawaii
Primary Use: Agriculture/development
Shares/Acre: 574
Alico
Ticker: ALCO
Recent Price: $36.87
52 High/Low: 65/35.88
Avg Volume: 21000
Mkt Cap: 271
Ent Value: 327
Acres Owned: 135466
EV/Acre: $2414
Location: Florida
Primary Use: Agriculture/Cattle
Shares/Acre: 574
Biloxi Marsh Lands
Ticker: BLMC
Recent Price: $31.00
52 High/Low: 39/28.25
Avg Volume: 200
Mkt Cap: 76
Ent Value: 70
Acres Owned: 90000
EV/Acre: $778
Location: Louisiana
Primary Use: Oil and Gas
Shares/Acre: 25
Blue Ridge Real Estate
Ticker: BLRGZ
Recent Price: $31
52 High/Low: 39/28.25
Avg Volume: 72
Mkt Cap: 76
Ent Value: 93
Acres Owned: 17009
EV/Acre: $5468
Location: Pennsylvania
Primary Use: Ski resorts, commercial, development
Shares/Acre: 176
Consolidated Tomoka Land
Ticker: CTO
Recent Price: $62.74
52 High/Low: 80.5/60.5
Avg Volume: 11400
Mkt Cap: 359
Ent Value: 363
Acres Owned: 11500
EV/Acre: $31,565
Location: Florida
Primary Use: Commercial, golf, development
Shares/Acre: 503
JG Boswell
Ticker: BWEL
Recent Price: $1025
52 High/Low: 1075/686
Avg Volume:
Mkt Cap: 960(est)
Ent Value: 1030(est)
Acres Owned: 172000
EV/Acre: $5,988
Location: California
Primary Use: Agriculture/development
Shares/Acre: 6
Maui Land and Pineapple
Ticker: MLP
Recent Price: $26.62
52 High/Low: 38.99/25.7
Avg Volume: 12200
Mkt Cap: 217
Ent Value: 248
Acres Owned: 25400
EV/Acre: $9,764
Location: Hawaii
Primary Use: Development/Agriculture
Shares/Acre: 367
PICO Holdings
Ticker: PICO
Recent Price: $34.16
52 High/Low: 49/33.01
Avg Volume: 164000
Mkt Cap: 543
Ent Value: 590
Acres Owned: 560000
EV/Acre: $1,054
Location: Nevada
Primary Use: Water/development
Shares/Acre: 31
Plum Creek Timber
Ticker: PCL
Recent Price: $45.16
52 High/Low: 48.45/37.13
Avg Volume: 1359000
Mkt Cap: 7780
Ent Value: 10092
Acres Owned: 8200000
EV/Acre: $1,231
Location: 18 states
Primary Use: Timber, some development
Shares/Acre: 27
Rayonier
Ticker: RYN
Recent Price: $45.59
52 High/Low: 49.55/38.17
Avg Volume: 545000
Mkt Cap: 3555
Ent Value: 4084
Acres Owned: 1931323
EV/Acre: $2,115
Location: several states
Primary Use: Timber, some development
Shares/Acre: 46
We’ll publish the balance of the list in our next posting.
We would like to thank all of our readers for a fantastic 2007. Our readership has grown by leaps and bounds over the year, and we just hit the 500 mark in subscribers. In any event, we look forward to delivering compelling, off the beaten path investment ideas in 2008.
*The author holds positions in BLMC, BWEL, MLP, PICO and PCL. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
What better way to say goodbye to 2007, we thought, than to review some of the companies holding one of our favorite assets, land. It’s generally been a pretty rough year for most firms that have anything to do with real estate. Some have no doubt been punished well beyond justification, but then again, Mr. Market is in control, and does as he sees fit. We believe this has created some compelling opportunities even if the housing situation worsens.
For the purposes of this piece, we’ve identified 20 or so companies with various operating businesses, that have substantial land holdings. Some of these have land that is a peripheral part of operations, or just one of several operating businesses. These companies have typically been less affected by recent market events; especially if their other operations are firing on all cylinders. Others have suffered from a double whammy: huge declines due to the geographical location of their land, and the fact that land is their primary business.
Two data calculations we use are worthy of explanation:
EV/Acres: Enterprise Value of the company/Total owned acres
Enterprise value is the market value of the firm plus debt, minus cash, and is an approximation of all claims that equity and debt holders have on a firm. We believe EV is a better estimate of true current market value, because it represents all claims investors hold in the capital structure, not just equity.
We use this calculation not to attempt to value the land on a per acre basis, but rather for perspective. The results of this calculation will be all over the board depending on the amount of land a company holds, how prominent it is in a company’s operations, as well as the land’s quality. (Obviously, timber land and marsh land is less valuable than vacation property)
Shares Per Acre
This represents the number of shares you would need to own in order to own one acre of a particular company’s land. This measure has no particular use, other than it is interesting to your Cheap Stocks editor, and helps measure an equity stake where the underlying company owns land in different terms. (For example, instead of saying you just picked up 550 shares of Tejon Ranch, you could say you just bought 10 acres of California land).
Below is Part I, the first ten companies.
(Market Cap and EV are in $ millions)
Alexander and Baldwin
Ticker: ALEX
Recent Price: $52.95
52 High/Low: 59.42/43.62
Avg Volume: 200000
Mkt Cap: 2227(million)
Ent Value: 2674(million)
Acres Owned: 89440
EV/Acre: $29,897
Location: Hawaii
Primary Use: Agriculture/development
Shares/Acre: 574
Alico
Ticker: ALCO
Recent Price: $36.87
52 High/Low: 65/35.88
Avg Volume: 21000
Mkt Cap: 271
Ent Value: 327
Acres Owned: 135466
EV/Acre: $2414
Location: Florida
Primary Use: Agriculture/Cattle
Shares/Acre: 574
Biloxi Marsh Lands
Ticker: BLMC
Recent Price: $31.00
52 High/Low: 39/28.25
Avg Volume: 200
Mkt Cap: 76
Ent Value: 70
Acres Owned: 90000
EV/Acre: $778
Location: Louisiana
Primary Use: Oil and Gas
Shares/Acre: 25
Blue Ridge Real Estate
Ticker: BLRGZ
Recent Price: $31
52 High/Low: 39/28.25
Avg Volume: 72
Mkt Cap: 76
Ent Value: 93
Acres Owned: 17009
EV/Acre: $5468
Location: Pennsylvania
Primary Use: Ski resorts, commercial, development
Shares/Acre: 176
Consolidated Tomoka Land
Ticker: CTO
Recent Price: $62.74
52 High/Low: 80.5/60.5
Avg Volume: 11400
Mkt Cap: 359
Ent Value: 363
Acres Owned: 11500
EV/Acre: $31,565
Location: Florida
Primary Use: Commercial, golf, development
Shares/Acre: 503
JG Boswell
Ticker: BWEL
Recent Price: $1025
52 High/Low: 1075/686
Avg Volume:
Mkt Cap: 960(est)
Ent Value: 1030(est)
Acres Owned: 172000
EV/Acre: $5,988
Location: California
Primary Use: Agriculture/development
Shares/Acre: 6
Maui Land and Pineapple
Ticker: MLP
Recent Price: $26.62
52 High/Low: 38.99/25.7
Avg Volume: 12200
Mkt Cap: 217
Ent Value: 248
Acres Owned: 25400
EV/Acre: $9,764
Location: Hawaii
Primary Use: Development/Agriculture
Shares/Acre: 367
PICO Holdings
Ticker: PICO
Recent Price: $34.16
52 High/Low: 49/33.01
Avg Volume: 164000
Mkt Cap: 543
Ent Value: 590
Acres Owned: 560000
EV/Acre: $1,054
Location: Nevada
Primary Use: Water/development
Shares/Acre: 31
Plum Creek Timber
Ticker: PCL
Recent Price: $45.16
52 High/Low: 48.45/37.13
Avg Volume: 1359000
Mkt Cap: 7780
Ent Value: 10092
Acres Owned: 8200000
EV/Acre: $1,231
Location: 18 states
Primary Use: Timber, some development
Shares/Acre: 27
Rayonier
Ticker: RYN
Recent Price: $45.59
52 High/Low: 49.55/38.17
Avg Volume: 545000
Mkt Cap: 3555
Ent Value: 4084
Acres Owned: 1931323
EV/Acre: $2,115
Location: several states
Primary Use: Timber, some development
Shares/Acre: 46
We’ll publish the balance of the list in our next posting.
We would like to thank all of our readers for a fantastic 2007. Our readership has grown by leaps and bounds over the year, and we just hit the 500 mark in subscribers. In any event, we look forward to delivering compelling, off the beaten path investment ideas in 2008.
*The author holds positions in BLMC, BWEL, MLP, PICO and PCL. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
Saturday, December 08, 2007
Potential Bargains in Profitable, Cash-Rich Double Net/Nets Part II
As a follow up to last weeks piece, here are an additional handful of companies trading at less than 2 times net current asset value that also meet the following criteria:
*Market Cap Minimum $100 million
*Price/Earnings Ratio less than 20
*Net Cash (cash less LT debt) is at least 20 percent of market cap
Silicon Image Inc
Ticker: SIMG
Price: $5.05
Mkt Cap: $425
NCAV: $222 million
Cash & ST Inv: $226 million
PE: 11
MKS Instruments
Ticker: MKSI
Price: $18.41
Mkt Cap: $1.04 billion
NCAV: $536 million
Cash & ST Inv: $360 million
PE: 11
United Capital Corp
Ticker: AFP
Price: $25.3
Mkt Cap: $210 million
NCAV: $116 million
Cash & ST Inv: $151 million
PE: 6
Heelys Inc
Ticker: HLYS
Price: $6.45
Mkt Cap: $175 million
NCAV: $121 million
Cash & ST Inv: $151 million
PE: 6
Nice to see some non-tech companies here; nothing against tech, but the truth is, your editor just isn't adept at tech (perhaps just not smart enough). As always, buyer beware. More often than not, companies are often cheap for very good reasons. What we've published here should be seen as the starting point, not a definitive list of must-have names.
*The author does not have positions in any of the companies mentioned. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
As a follow up to last weeks piece, here are an additional handful of companies trading at less than 2 times net current asset value that also meet the following criteria:
*Market Cap Minimum $100 million
*Price/Earnings Ratio less than 20
*Net Cash (cash less LT debt) is at least 20 percent of market cap
Silicon Image Inc
Ticker: SIMG
Price: $5.05
Mkt Cap: $425
NCAV: $222 million
Cash & ST Inv: $226 million
PE: 11
MKS Instruments
Ticker: MKSI
Price: $18.41
Mkt Cap: $1.04 billion
NCAV: $536 million
Cash & ST Inv: $360 million
PE: 11
United Capital Corp
Ticker: AFP
Price: $25.3
Mkt Cap: $210 million
NCAV: $116 million
Cash & ST Inv: $151 million
PE: 6
Heelys Inc
Ticker: HLYS
Price: $6.45
Mkt Cap: $175 million
NCAV: $121 million
Cash & ST Inv: $151 million
PE: 6
Nice to see some non-tech companies here; nothing against tech, but the truth is, your editor just isn't adept at tech (perhaps just not smart enough). As always, buyer beware. More often than not, companies are often cheap for very good reasons. What we've published here should be seen as the starting point, not a definitive list of must-have names.
*The author does not have positions in any of the companies mentioned. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
Sunday, December 02, 2007
Potential Bargains in Profitable, Cash-Rich Double Net/Nets
Occasionally, we take liberties with Ben Graham’s original formula used to identify companies trading below their net current asset value, and loosen the criteria a bit. (Truth be told, Ben would not have bought a company unless it traded for less than 2/3 NCAV, and even then, he would have had to be convinced the company had legs.) This week we’ll identify some of the companies trading at less than twice their NCAV, with the following attributes:
*Market Cap Minimum $100 million
*Price/Earnings Ratio less than 20
*Net Cash (cash less LT debt) is at least 20 percent of market cap
The objective is to identify companies that are not just potentially cheap, but also have levels of cash adequate to weather storms that may be on the horizon. As always, this is a working list that requires additional research and scrutiny prior to making investment decisions. Not surprisingly, many on the list are tech companies. Perhaps we’ll dig deeper into a couple of the more compelling names in the coming weeks.
ZYGO Corp
Ticker: ZIGO
Price: $11.29
Mkt Cap: $20
NCAV: $102 million
Cash & ST Inv: $41 million
PE: 19
Rudolph Technologies
Ticker: RTEC
Price: $11.95
Mkt Cap: $349 million
NCAV: $211 million
Cash & ST Inv: $121 million
PE: 17
Integrated Silicon Solution Inc
Ticker: ISSI
Price: $6.52
Mkt Cap: $246 million
NCAV: $161 million
Cash & ST Inv: $134 million
PE: 16
Eagle Test Systems
Ticker: EGLT
Price: $10.95
Mkt Cap: $251 million
NCAV: $141 million
Cash & ST Inv: $112.5 million
PE: 14
Cutera Inc.
Ticker: CUTR
Price: $15.14
Mkt Cap: $192 million
NCAV: $99 milliom
Cash & ST Inv: $100 million
PE: 13
Benchmark Electronics
Ticker: BHE
Price: $17.95
Mkt Cap: $1.28 billion
NCAV: $852 million
Cash & ST Inv: $379 million
PE: 13
Conn's Inc
Ticker: CONN
Price: $18.1
Mkt Cap: $420 million
NCAV: $244 million
Cash & ST Inv: $210 million
PE: 11
*The author does not have positions in any of the companies mentioned. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
Occasionally, we take liberties with Ben Graham’s original formula used to identify companies trading below their net current asset value, and loosen the criteria a bit. (Truth be told, Ben would not have bought a company unless it traded for less than 2/3 NCAV, and even then, he would have had to be convinced the company had legs.) This week we’ll identify some of the companies trading at less than twice their NCAV, with the following attributes:
*Market Cap Minimum $100 million
*Price/Earnings Ratio less than 20
*Net Cash (cash less LT debt) is at least 20 percent of market cap
The objective is to identify companies that are not just potentially cheap, but also have levels of cash adequate to weather storms that may be on the horizon. As always, this is a working list that requires additional research and scrutiny prior to making investment decisions. Not surprisingly, many on the list are tech companies. Perhaps we’ll dig deeper into a couple of the more compelling names in the coming weeks.
ZYGO Corp
Ticker: ZIGO
Price: $11.29
Mkt Cap: $20
NCAV: $102 million
Cash & ST Inv: $41 million
PE: 19
Rudolph Technologies
Ticker: RTEC
Price: $11.95
Mkt Cap: $349 million
NCAV: $211 million
Cash & ST Inv: $121 million
PE: 17
Integrated Silicon Solution Inc
Ticker: ISSI
Price: $6.52
Mkt Cap: $246 million
NCAV: $161 million
Cash & ST Inv: $134 million
PE: 16
Eagle Test Systems
Ticker: EGLT
Price: $10.95
Mkt Cap: $251 million
NCAV: $141 million
Cash & ST Inv: $112.5 million
PE: 14
Cutera Inc.
Ticker: CUTR
Price: $15.14
Mkt Cap: $192 million
NCAV: $99 milliom
Cash & ST Inv: $100 million
PE: 13
Benchmark Electronics
Ticker: BHE
Price: $17.95
Mkt Cap: $1.28 billion
NCAV: $852 million
Cash & ST Inv: $379 million
PE: 13
Conn's Inc
Ticker: CONN
Price: $18.1
Mkt Cap: $420 million
NCAV: $244 million
Cash & ST Inv: $210 million
PE: 11
*The author does not have positions in any of the companies mentioned. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
Friday, November 23, 2007
New Position: Avalon Holdings (AWX)
We viewed a recent pullback in the price of tiny Avalon Holdings (AWX), as an attractive entry point, and recently initiated a position.
We initally wrote about Avalon back in October, 2006, and found it an interesting and profitable combination of assets and businesses. The company currently owns 2 golf courses (Avalon Lakes Golf Course, Warren, Ohio, and Avalon Country Club, Sharon, PA) operates the Avalon Golf and Country Club at Squaw Creek in Vienna Ohio, and runs a waste management business, which accounts for more than 85% of operating revenue.
Strong Third Quarter
Revenue rose 9% to $12.1 million from the same quarter last year, and 20% to $35 million for the first nine months of 2007. Net income rose to 547K or $.14 per share vs, 501K and $.13 for the quarter, and to $1.262 million and $.33 per share vs. 984K and $.26.
The balance sheet remains strong with $6.741 million or $1.77 per share in cash, and just 232K in long term debt. Cash did decrease significantly from year end 2006, primarily due to cap ex related to improvements at the Sharon Country Club (acquired in October 2006).
Buyer beware, Avalon is a microcap, with little liquidity. Before taking a position in a company of this size, do your homework.
Avalon Holdings
Ticker: AWX
Price: $6.50
Mkt Cap: $24.7 million
Shares Out: 3.8 million (3.191 million Class A, 613K Class B)
Book Value/Share: $10.32 (no intangibles)
Avg Volume: 8800
*The author has a position in Avalon Holdings (AWX). This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
We viewed a recent pullback in the price of tiny Avalon Holdings (AWX), as an attractive entry point, and recently initiated a position.
We initally wrote about Avalon back in October, 2006, and found it an interesting and profitable combination of assets and businesses. The company currently owns 2 golf courses (Avalon Lakes Golf Course, Warren, Ohio, and Avalon Country Club, Sharon, PA) operates the Avalon Golf and Country Club at Squaw Creek in Vienna Ohio, and runs a waste management business, which accounts for more than 85% of operating revenue.
Strong Third Quarter
Revenue rose 9% to $12.1 million from the same quarter last year, and 20% to $35 million for the first nine months of 2007. Net income rose to 547K or $.14 per share vs, 501K and $.13 for the quarter, and to $1.262 million and $.33 per share vs. 984K and $.26.
The balance sheet remains strong with $6.741 million or $1.77 per share in cash, and just 232K in long term debt. Cash did decrease significantly from year end 2006, primarily due to cap ex related to improvements at the Sharon Country Club (acquired in October 2006).
Buyer beware, Avalon is a microcap, with little liquidity. Before taking a position in a company of this size, do your homework.
Avalon Holdings
Ticker: AWX
Price: $6.50
Mkt Cap: $24.7 million
Shares Out: 3.8 million (3.191 million Class A, 613K Class B)
Book Value/Share: $10.32 (no intangibles)
Avg Volume: 8800
*The author has a position in Avalon Holdings (AWX). This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. The author will not trade any of the securities mentioned (buy, sell, short) for at least two weeks following the date of this post.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)